Finding Your Personal Bet Trends
"What gets measured gets improved"
A quote from Peter Drucker rings true for sports betting. If you can measure exactly where you are profiting the most and where you are losing the most, this can have a profound impact on your success as a bettor!
Today I'm discussing tracking and analyzing your bets, and what you can learn from your past mistakes, as well as your past successes, so you can improve in the future.
Before we start: Tracking your bets - why is this important?
You track your personal finances, following your income and expenses, so that you know where your money is going and use it optimally. If you are wanting to use your money optimally for sports betting, why wouldn't you track your bets as well?
Tracking your bets allows you to see how much money you have on hand, what bets that money is going to, and other pertinent information which I'll dig into below.
So what should you be tracking? At the very very least you should be recording the date of the game, the teams that were playing, who you bet on, the type of bet, the odds/spread, and the outcome. This may seem like a lot, but stay with me until the last paragraph - there's an easy way to do this!
You can learn from your patterns when you analyze your bets.
Every smart bettor knows that there are patterns and trends that occur in every league, every team, and every player. If you can recognize these patterns, it can give you an edge when you're making your picks.
What many bettors DON'T know is that they have their own patterns and trends! You will start to see clues and patterns within your own bets when you begin to analyze them. For example, these can include what teams or bet types you profit from the most, or what type of gambling traps you are falling in.
What happens when you find your personal patterns and trends? The answer should be obvious! You can continue doing more in the areas where you are winning the most, and start working to improve in the areas you are most often losing in.
"You will start to see clues and patterns within your own bets when you begin to analyze them... these can include what teams or bet types you profit from the most..."
Now for the good part! How you can analyze this information.
Let me first start by saying that sample size is key when sports betting. If you are trying to make decisions based on only a few bets, you aren't going to be very successful. Let's say a player puts up 5 three-point shots in one night and only makes one of them, you can't just assume they're bad at threes - that's a tiny sample size! It's no different for the sample size or number of bets. You should be looking at at least 50+ bets of a certain type before making any major decisions.
By league
Begin by first analyzing the different leagues you bet on. You'll start to recognize that you're more profitable in some leagues, but struggle with others. It's important to then think about why you may be not be doing so well. Are you not doing enough research, using a weak model, not confident in some bets versus others, the list could go on. From this information, start focusing more of your bankroll towards leagues you are the most profitable in, and look for ways to improve on the ones you're not.
By Team
Exactly like analyzing the leagues, dig a layer deeper at what teams you are the most/least profitable with. You may find that certain teams you lose a lot of money on so look to cut them from the bets you place, or better yet, learn why you're losing a lot.
Note that you may find a league you are doing poorly on, but digging deeper you find that if you stopped betting on specific teams, you'd be doing well!
By Bet Type
Next, figure out what bet types you are the most/least profitable with. This is often known by
"From this information, start focusing more of your bankroll towards areas you are the most profitable in, and look for ways to improve on the areas you're not."
Wrap up.
Wrapping up with a quick 6-step breakdown...
Track your bets and the pertinent information that comes with each
After you have a significant sample size (50+ bets) begin looking for patterns
Analyze your results from each league you bet on
Analyze your results from each team you've bet on
Analyze your results from each bet type
Focus your bankroll towards what you are good at, and look for ways to improve where you are not as profitable
You should now have a strong grasp of how to improve based on the trends of your past bets. Although tracking isn't the most glamourous thing in sports betting, it can have a profound impact on your results as a bettor! And to help with this, we are launching an app in the Fall that allows you to sync your sportsbooks so your bets are automatically tracked. This will allow you to view your records right on your phone to easily spot the patterns and trends I discussed here. Check the app out here and get on the waitlist!
Caleb Dykema
4/16/2021
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