NFL Conference Championship Betting Preview
- Jake Margolis
- Jan 25, 2022
- 2 min read
It's going to be hard to follow up the craziness of last weekend's football games. The 49ers and Bengals both won on field goals as time expired and no one is talking about it. The Rams survived blowing a 27-3 lead to Tom Brady and won with a last second field goal of their own. But all of that was forgotten when the Bills vs Chiefs game had ended. Possibly the greatest playoff football game of all-time finished on a Travis Kelce touchdown catch on the first possession of overtime with the Chiefs winning 42-36.
Let's take a look at how the teams remaining have fared during both the regular season and the playoffs from a betting perspective.
Cincinnati Bengals
Regular season - (10-7 overall, 10-7 against the spread, 8-9 overs/unders)
Playoffs
2-0 overall (vs LV, @ TEN)
2-0 Against the Spread (-6 vs LV, +4 @ TEN)
0-2 Overs/Unders (48.5 vs LV, 48.5 @ TEN)
Upcoming - AFC Championship - 1/30 @KC (CIN +7, O/U 54)
Kansas City Chiefs
Regular season - (12-5 overall, 8-9 against the spread, 10-7 overs/unders)
Playoffs
2-0 overall (vs PIT, vs BUF)
2-0 Against the Spread (-12 vs PIT, +4 vs BUF)
2-0 Overs/Unders (46.5 vs PIT, 54 vs BUF)
Upcoming - AFC Championship - 1/30 vs CIN (KC -7, O/U 54)
Los Angeles Rams
Regular season - (12-5 overall, 8-9 against the spread, 9-7-1 overs/unders)
Playoffs
2-0 overall (vs AZ, @ TB)
2-0 Against the Spread (-3 vs AZ, +3 @ TB)
1-1 Overs/Unders (48.5 vs LV, 48.5 @ TEN)
Upcoming - NFC Championship - 1/30 vs SF (LAR -3.5, O/U 46.5)
San Francisco 49ers
Regular season - (10-7 overall, 9-8 against the spread, 8-9 overs/unders)
Playoffs
2-0 overall (@ DAL, @ GB)
2-0 Against the Spread (+3.5 @ DAL, +6 @ GB)
0-2 Overs/Unders (51 @ DAL, 47 @ GB)
Upcoming - NFC Championship - 1/30 @ LAR (SF +3.5, O/U 46.5)
Will Joe Burrow and the Bengals be able to keep up with the high-powered offense of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Can Matthew Stafford reach the Super Bowl in his first season with the Rams or will Deebo Samuel catch and carry the 49ers to victory?
I came across Mad Drive by accident and didn’t expect much, but the physics-based mechanics actually make it pretty engaging compared to typical browser games.
One thing I’d add on the Rams side is how much their offense changes if the run game is just “fine” versus getting stuffed—Stafford’s best drives feel so rhythm-based. Also, SF’s ability to shorten games makes laying more than a field goal always a little sweaty. Off-topic, but the name https://stylelooklab.com made me laugh because the matchup really is about “styles” more than stars sometimes.
KC’s recent “overs” run makes sense with how fast they can score, but I still think the key for the total is whether CIN can protect Burrow well enough to avoid those drive-killing sacks. If it turns into a bunch of 3rd-and-longs, 54 gets dicey even if the game feels high-energy. Random memory: the first time I heard about that ghibli ai tool it was during a game thread where everyone was making wild stylized screenshots of the broadcast.
For Rams-49ers, the spread feels like it’s really about whether SF can keep Stafford from getting those quick strike plays off play-action. The total at 46.5 also seems low if either team turns it over in their own territory. Side note: I’ve seen people try to https://hrefgo.com when they’re building little stat tools for stuff like this, which is kind of fun.
The ATS splits are interesting, but I always wonder how much of that is schedule/market timing vs “team identity.” Like, CIN being 10-7 ATS in the regular season looks strong, but it’s also a team that changed a lot mid-year once the offense clicked. This kind of record-keeping reminds me of using a quick grading bell curve calculator — the story can change a lot depending on what you’re adjusting for.